This is an interesting article by Michael Rogers. I was told about it by an old friend of mine who stated in part:
"This is gonna be the "Edsel" of the 21st c. The trouble is I don't think people are ready to shuck out $3000 for a TV to watch "Friends" in high-resolution Megapixels. These TV's are gonna go the way of the 2-way TV-phones we all thought we'd be talking to each other on by now.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for wretched excess and spending and new technoogy[sic] etc. But it seems no one can get their act together to make
the system work. "
I'm not so convinced it will be an "Edsel" .
On one hand I can see that people may not shuck out $3K for those digital TV's but on the other hand, if they want to watch "America's Wackiest Home Suicides" and "The Bachelorette XXII: Lesbians gone wild" they will probably shell out the $50-$100 for a D-to-A converter. And you know that there will be some marketing people out there who will offer these free boxes with the purchase of their product so that the unwashed masses won't stop watching their commercials. Imagine, once again, if all of a sudden, if there was no TV? What would people do? Invent it, probably.
Rogers writes:
"Switching everyone to digital TV could be the biggest bonanza the industry has seen since the mid-Eighties, when the advent of audio CDs fuelled an enormous upgrade market."
I'm not sure the comparing CDs and LP's to analog and digital TV's is a good one to make. For one thing, when the CD came out it not only had superior sound quality, they were far more durable (Remember being told not to touch the record's circus?) I've seen people handle CDs with grubby french fry greased fingers (to my horror) and they still played. Try that with an LP. CDs can be played over and over and over again. A friend of mine would only play an LP at most once a day to keep it from getting too worn.
The "C" in "CD" also makes them superior to the LP. It's easy to lug around 20 CDs in your car. Not so with an LP. (I won't even think about the possiblity of playing an LP in a car)
I'ts the same with DVD's. Not only are the disks more compact than VCR tapes, they offer better sound and video as well as being more durable.
As to the TV's - there's the quality aspect that is similar to he CD/LP case, but there's no other big advantage - no cost reduction, no decrease in size (unless people start to get a flatscreen, and get rid of the CRT TV's, but that's got nothing to do with the receiver) no durability issue - I can't think of anything other than the enhanced quality that is the selling point. I wonder how many people are interested in having the best, latest technology? With other forms of technology such as Computers, cell phones, PDAs, MP3 players, etc. There is a large section of the population that wants the latest and greatest - generally the 20 somethings with credit cards, and older technophiles with money.
It's an interesting situation. I'm convinced that something will happen and TV's will go to a digital broadcast - because the remaining bandwidth is needed for other things. National Defense and Homeland Decurity were cited by Mr. Rogers, and both have an important place in people's minds these days. when it will happen? Probably not on 12/31/06, but sometime after.
Maybe I'll start building these D-to-A boxes. Perhaps I can make some money on maintaining America's access to the "Great Wasteland".